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The Evidence Against 10,000 Steps for Weight Loss

According to my smart phone I walk about 8200 steps, or about four miles, every day when I’m on the golf course. That translates to about four miles. According to my phone’s health app, I burned only 191 calories. To celebrate, I ate a candy bar containing 250 calories. You’ve all done the same; admit it.

Shouldn’t exercise burn more calories?

The answer is disappointing. In a review of 32 randomized controlled trials that involved a total of 4774 participants (Morze et al. 2021) with obesity, the average loss of weight of those who participated in a regular exercise routine, as compared to controls without exercise, was small; only about 2 kg. Nationwide surveys show that 43% of Americans are overweight by at least 10-15 kg. The authors concluded that the impact of exercise was modest in terms of clinically-meaningful weight loss. The current evidence indicates that although exercise is important for cardiovascular and bone health, it is not an effective way to achieve significant weight loss (Ponzer, 2022).

Why Don’t You Lose More Weight from Walking More?

Energy expenditure is not linear. More activity does not necessarily result in greater daily calorie expenditure or weight loss. This is why most people who exercise lose less weight than would be expected for any given effort expended. Why? Our bodies evolved complex compensatory mechanisms to balance the energy necessary to contract muscles with the energy available for other critical biological processes.

In addition, muscles evolved to be efficient so that they did not waste too many valuable calories. Studies have shown that our body automatically compensates (with some variation from person to person, of course) during exercise and holds back at least a quarter of the calories we might expect to expend. Essentially, our bodies evolved mechanisms to protect us from wasting too much energy that might later be important for our survival. Our brains and reproductive organs require a significant percentage of our daily caloric intake. Unfortunately, these biochemical compensations and evolutionary priorities have become maladaptive for modern humans who consume far too many calories each day and consistently fail to burn off excess calories with movement (Pontzer, 2022).

How Evolution Shapes Our Body’s Energy Expenditure

A recent investigation collected data from 1,754 adults who drank doubly labeled water (containing isotopes that allow researchers to determine the number of calories burned per day). The researchers also monitored their body compositions and basal rate of energy expenditure. This basal rate represents the number of calories someone burns by simply being alive. The researchers subtracted the basal energy consumed from total energy expenditure to obtain an approximation of the energy expenditure from exercise as well as other movements, such as standing, sitting, and walking. As expected, more movement burns more energy.

However, the data revealed a surprising outcome. As each person exercised, they did not burn as many total calories as expected. Most subjects burned only about 72 percent as many additional calories as would be expected given their level of activity. The compensation was even greater in obese adults. Their bodies tended to reduce by 50 percent or more the actual number of calories burned by exercising (Robinson & Stensel 2022).

Why Weight Loss Relies More on Diet Than Exercise

So, given that you are working against evolution, how can you get rid of those extra pounds?

The answer was clearly demonstrated on a once popular television show. The trainer for the NBC television show “The Biggest Loser” used to claim that more exercise was all that was necessary to lose weight. After many years of helping severely obese people lose weight, however, Bob Harper concluded that exercise is not the key; your diet matters the most. Most of his clients became obese because they ate too many calories. Visit any gym or spa, and you will see that people exercising carry a significant amount of body fat overlying their muscles even as those muscles get bigger and stronger.

Excess body fat releases lots of inflammatory proteins into the blood. Researchers recently investigated whether diet or exercise most effectively reduced the levels of inflammatory proteins in overweight or obese women. After 12 months, the scientists concluded that the greatest weight loss and most significant reduction in the level of inflammatory proteins came only from dieting, not exercising. Furthermore, studies have shown that caloric restriction may be both safe and modestly effective in reducing the symptoms of depression; this effect involves the activation of an endocannabinoid receptor (Drummond et al., 2025).

Weight Maintenance After GLP-1 Drugs: Physical Activity or Calorie Restriction?

Physical activity or calorie restriction for weight maintenance? This is a particularly relevant issue for patients who have experienced weight loss after a standard treatment regimen utilizing the new GLP-1 drugs. Patients want to know how to avoid gaining back lost weight after the pharmacotherapy has been discontinued.

Key Takeaways: Diet, Exercise, and Weight Loss

If you want to strengthen your cardiovascular system and enhance your bone health, find an exercise that you enjoy doing and stick with it! If you want to lose weight, the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that caloric restriction is the only valid, scientifically proven dietary intervention that will achieve your goal. In addition, calorie restriction lengthens the person’s healthy life, or the amount of time they are not afflicted by a deadly illness.

In contrast, based on data from controlled trials with randomization after prior weight loss, the evidence for weight loss with exercise training is simply not conclusive (Oppert et al., 2023). Finally, there are no short cuts, such as the popular drugs called caloric restriction mimetics. Although many clinical trials have been conducted, no noteworthy findings support their effectiveness in preventing aging. (Trisal et al., 2025)

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